Copper Monthly Price Forecast with Time Series Models
Read ArticleDate of Conference
December 6-7, 2022
Published In
“Exponential Technologies and Global Challenges: Moving toward a new culture of entrepreneurship and innovation for sustainable development”
Location of Conference
Virtual Edition
Authors
Cotrina-Teatino, Marco Antonio
Marquina Araujo, Jairo Jhonatan
Noriega Vidal, Eduardo Manuel
Vega Gonzalez, Juan Antonio
Arango Retamozo, Solio Marino
Portilla Rodriguez, Hans Roger
Castillo Chung, Aldo Roger
Abstract
The objective of this research was to find the forecast price of copper in $/lb for September 2022. The research design was quantitative with a predictive scope, accurate information on monthly copper prices since September 2020 was used. to August 2022. The models used as time series forecasting methods were moving average forecasting, weighted moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt exponential smoothing, and Winters exponential smoothing. Adjusting the ways to the original model used the coefficient of determination (R2) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a measure of precision. The result indicated that the best method is simple exponential smoothing, where the forecast copper price for September 2022 was $3.60/lb, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 4.4% and the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.86. Finally, it is concluded that with the time series forecasting methods it is possible to forecast the price of copper.