Dynamics of Covid-19 infection, using Delay Differential Equations

Authors

Mayorga, Carlos

Sirvent, Antonio

Valladares, Gabriela

Rojas, José

Chacha, Salomón

Abstract

Due to the current Covid-19 pandemic, the scientific community has needed to generate increasingly fine and realistic models to predict the behavior of the virus over the weeks, so that local authorities can make decisions to slow the spread of the virus. The differential equations of delay will be used to capture the incubation cycles of the virus and susceptibility, adjusting the model to the reality of the city of Milagro in Ecuador. These equations are solved using the differential transformation method, a non-traditional numerical method, that takes advantage of its linear properties to find the solution through a Taylor series. Finally, you will find the susceptible curve, infected and immunized over time will be found.