Scenario analysis applied to mining for decision making and risk analysis
Read ArticleDate of Conference
December 6-7, 2022
Published In
“Exponential Technologies and Global Challenges: Moving toward a new culture of entrepreneurship and innovation for sustainable development”
Location of Conference
Virtual Edition
Authors
Castillo Chung, Aldo Roger
Arévalo-Aranda, César
Arango Retamozo, Solio Marino
Briceño Contreras, Sandra Keiko
Salinas Murga, Maria Angelica
Torres Rivera, Christian Michell
Portilla Rodriguez, Hans Roger
Abstract
The objective of this research was to analyze scenarios through decision making and risk analysis, which was applied in the construction of a cruise ship in the Atlantis project. The methodology used is quantitative based on event information, which through a graphic representation facilitated the understanding and interpretation of the decision tree, in addition, statistical methods were applied for risk analysis. The results obtained from the decision tree were that the first alternative that was proposed had a NPV of $3 970, the second of $3 405 and regarding the risk analysis, the coefficient of variation of the first option is 57% and the second 60%. Therefore, after having made the graphical representation and verified the risk, it is concluded that for the construction of the crossing, option 1 has the most viable decision regarding the path traced in the graph, the highest NPV and the lowest risk.