The Impact of Hydroclimatic Variability on Hydroelectric Power Generation in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru Between 1990 and 2024 (#2439)

Authors

Giraldo Malca, Ulises Francisco

Bustamante Hernández, Saleth

Aráoz Lozano, Adriana Romina

Novoa Poma, Cristina Priscila

Amaya Corredor, Carlos Alberto

Abstract

Currently, hydropower generation is the most sustainable alternative contributing to electricity production. This is essential for countries that do not have sufficient fossil fuel production. However, its sustainability is at risk due to the changes that global warming and the intensification of El Niño Costero are likely to cause. This study analyzes the impact of hydroclimatic variability on hydroelectric power generation in the Mantaro River basin from 1990 to 2024, taking into account the effects of climate change and ENSO events. The analysis used meteorological records from Peru's National Meteorology and Hydrology Service, flow rates from the National Water Resources Information System, and production data from the Mantaro Hydroelectric Complex. The results revealed pronounced seasonal rainfall patterns, with nearly 80% of precipitation occurring during the wet season, as well as an overall rise in temperatures. Hydroelectric production exhibited two distinct phases: growth until 2006 and a subsequent gradual decline until 2024. There were higher correlations with rainfall in unregulated basin sectors than with flows, which are strongly influenced by reservoir operations. ENSO analysis reveals significant water deficits during El Niño episodes, particularly during the dry season. While previous studies have reported downward trends in flows, the opposite behavior was observed during the evaluated period, which underscores the importance of local and multitemporal analyses. In conclusion, the Mantaro basin is highly vulnerable to hydro-energy due to climate variability, which underscores the need to strengthen hydro-climatic monitoring, optimize reservoir regulation, and promote adaptation strategies that reduce exposure to prolonged dry periods.