Data Science Applied to a Market Study to Estimate the Demand for Bioplastics in the Peruvian Context (#880)

Authors

Quiñones - Gabino, Jheyson Alexander

Arroyo - Ulloa, Maximiliano

Rivasplata - Sanchez, Absalon

Abstract

The present study analyzes the unmet demand for bioplastics in Peru for the 2023–2027 period, considering the impact of policies such as Law No. 30884, which regulates the use of single-use plastics, and the growing interest in sustainability. Due to the lack of specific historical data for the bioplastics market, primary polypropylene (PP) destined for the packaging sector was used as a reference, given its relevance in the plastics industry and its potential to be replaced by biopolymers such as polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB). Information was gathered from official sources such as SUNAT and BCRP to estimate historical demand and supply. The analysis was conducted in three stages: demand estimation, supply estimation, and calculation of unmet demand. Tools such as Minitab and RStudio were employed to carry out linear regression, multiple stepwise regression, and advanced time series models (ARIMA and nonlinear regressions). The results reveal a significant unmet demand for bioplastics, representing an opportunity for investments in this emerging market. Additionally, a hypothetical investment scenario was developed to address part of this demand, projecting prices and market share. This study highlights the utility of data science in generating precise projections, optimizing strategic decisions, and fostering the transition toward a sustainable economy.