Analysis of Climate Change in the Honduran River Sub-basin and its Impact on Hydroelectric Power Generation

Authors

Wettstein, César

Villatoro, Héctor

Paz, Claudia

Abstract

Climate change is a reality that has been appreciated in recent decades, with the increase in temperature being one of the most evident, in addition to changes in precipitation and other weather patterns that have presented increases. The electricity sector in Honduras is not exempt from these climatic changes and hydroelectric power generation being a large percentage of the energy matrix, this document presents an analysis of the impact that climate change will have on the operation and planning of the el tornillito hydroelectric project, also including the impact of climate change on power generation in the project. A statistical model and modeling based on the relationships of climatic conditions granted by WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning) were used for the projection of electric power generation. The projections used as input parameters a linear programming model where it allows the modeling to calculate the planning and operation at the minimum cost of the system. The model simulates a period between the hydrological years 2000 – 2030, the results show the impact that the installation of the el tornillito project in the last decade and the significant changes in the precipitation of the Ulúa River sub-basin reduces energy generation by approximately 12%, for research purposes the effects that the climate generates on the generation of electric power to the el Tornillito project are presented.