HYDROCARBONS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON PERUVIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, APPLYING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Authors

Cordova Neri, Teodoro Luciano

Eyzaguirre Gornenia, Luz

Abstract

Hydrocarbons constitute a great opportunity for the industrial, energetic and social development of Peru. This research deals with the design of a dynamic model for economic growth, based on oil and gas, with the system dynamics methodology. The design of the model is due to an exhaustive review of international models that have been analyzed and adapted to the Peruvian reality. The results obtained from the simulation of the proposed model show a trend of improvement in the growth of the Peruvian economy - GDP for the years of the period 2015 - 2030 as a consequence of a successful decision to implement the Camisea project. Gas has had very significant contributions, not only economic and financial, but also environmental and energetic, modifying the national energy matrix. Having a low-cost electricity supply, LPG to replace traditional fossil fuels and it has been possible to improve the air in the country's capital. Benefits that should be expanded and extended to the largest number of cities in the country. Given the richness of the gas deposits in LPG and condensates, the increase in production has resulted in a substantial improvement in the country's trade balance.