Mathematical model to estimate the probability to approve given the first grade at the Escuela Politécnica Nacional

Published in: Innovation in Education and Inclusion : Proceedings of the 16th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education and Technology
Date of Conference: July 18-20, 2018
Location of Conference: Lima, Perú
Authors: Tarquino Sánchez (Escuela Politecnica Nacional, EC)
Ivan Sandoval (Escuela Politécnica Nacional, EC)
Diego Salazar (Escuela Politécnica Nacional, EC)
Ximena Sánchez (Escuela Politécnica Nacional, EC)
Vanessa Guevara (Escuela Politécnica Nacional, EC)
Full Paper: #284


Ecuadorian universities must undergo a rigorous process of internal and external evaluation of the quality of education by the Consejo de Evaluación, Acreditación y Aseguramiento de la Calidad del Sistema de Educación Superior (CEAACES). The institutional evaluation model for Higher Education Institutions from Ecuador seek to establish a standard procedure to have a continuous monitoring of the approval’s probability of the students in each of classes. These activities allow academic units to improve their quality management. A logistic regression model was developed using 5 years of historical data, a brief discussion about the pertinence about main variables is also elaborated. A simulation and its results finally are shown, interpretation of the probability results and the estimated number of future student were found.